A Russian military satellite, Cosmos 2612, has moved from more than 200 miles away to within about three miles of ICEYE-X36, a US-registered radar satellite in a fleet that has supplied Ukraine with imagery since 2022. The astronomer Jonathan McDowell wrote that it may be the first low Earth orbit rendezvous of two active satellites in which one owner did not approve.
The approach took months. Cosmos 2612 launched in April on a Soyuz-2.1b with five sister satellites. In May, most of the group shifted their orbits about 0.8 degrees to match the plane of X36, and Cosmos 2609 passed within 1.6 miles on May 26. Cosmos 2612 then drifted off that plane, and between September 30 and October 16 it fired separate burns to match X36's altitude, eccentricity and orbital period. Dutch tracker Marco Langbroek estimated it was within a few hundred meters, possibly much closer, by the following Saturday night. Russia has said nothing about what the satellite carries.
Spacecraft keep their fuel for a reason, and this chase burned a lot of it. That makes an accident unlikely. Analysts offer three readings: surveillance, preparation for later interference, or a show of capability. X36 is a synthetic aperture radar satellite, which images through cloud and at night, so it is an obvious target for a spy.
The legal footing is thin. There is no strict limit on satellite proximity, though countries generally stay at least 6 miles apart, according to space law professor Aaron Brynildson. A norm is easy to cross when nobody has to answer for it.
The closest precedent is July 2020, when Cosmos 2543 released an object at up to 416 mph relative to itself, and the US and UK condemned it. That was a single event. This is sustained, patient and aimed at a commercial asset, which is harder to protest. Langbroek cautioned that any X36 failure would be difficult to blame on Cosmos 2612.
The next test is already scheduled. Analyst Greg Gillinger says Cosmos 2611 and 2613 are converging on the plane of ICEYE X37, with crossings expected around November 6 and November 15. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has urged the US and Europe to decide how they would answer a hostile act in orbit, and to say so publicly. Whether anyone does before the second crossing is the open question.