Memory prices are climbing fast, and analysts say the worst is still ahead.
Jefferies Equity Research projects memory prices will rise 40-50% in Q3 2026, then climb another 30-40% in Q4 — compounding to a potential near-doubling over the second half of the year alone. A further 40-45% year-on-year increase is forecast for 2027. Jefferies sees no meaningful recovery until 2028, and even then estimates only a 15-20% price correction. The driver: AI data centers are absorbing available DRAM and NAND supply faster than manufacturers can replenish it.
The squeeze is no longer confined to PC builders. Apple has already announced price increases of hundreds of dollars on iPads and Macs, with iPhones expected to follow. When consumer flagship devices start repricing around an enterprise infrastructure problem, the cost of the AI buildout is shifting visibly onto retail buyers — a transfer that tends to generate political attention.
A former Samsung executive had floated Chinese manufacturing capacity as a potential pressure valve, but Jefferies data suggests Chinese memory is not actually hitting the market at lower prices, leaving that hope largely unrealized. Whether the cycle breaks on the demand side — AI investment sentiment has grown more cautious, with OpenAI reporting a $38.53 billion loss for 2025 — or waits for supply to catch up in 2028, consumers are unlikely to see relief soon.