Laptop makers are forecast to buy about 75% fewer mini-LED panels in 2027 than in 2025, and Apple's expected move to OLED for the MacBook Pro is a big reason, according to Counterpoint Research.
The firm expects mini-LED notebook panel shipments to drop 38% in 2026 and another 60% in 2027. Compounded, that leaves shipments at roughly a quarter of the 2025 level. Notebook OLED panel shipments head the other way: up 50% in 2026 and 24% in 2027, an 86% increase over 2025. Counterpoint credits the anticipated OLED MacBook Pro and demand for premium AI PCs. It also expects the overall notebook display market to shrink 3% in 2026, so OLED is gaining share in a market that is getting smaller.
A quick translation: mini-LED is an LCD screen lit from behind by thousands of tiny LEDs, while OLED pixels make their own light. Apple has used mini-LED in MacBook Pro models since 2021. Counterpoint says OLED's thinner profile, image quality, and improving cost competitiveness are encouraging adoption, with tandem OLED designs (stacked emissive layers) and larger production facilities supporting further growth.
Industry reporting says the new 14-inch and 16-inch OLED touch panels come from a single exclusive supplier, built on an 8.6-generation line in Asan, South Korea. The supplier has not been named in the reporting. Mark Gurman has reported that the laptops will be significantly lighter and will swap the display notch for a Dynamic Island.
The forecast leans on a product Apple has not yet announced. A 75% fall is steep for any component, but it is one firm's projection, and Apple's choice is only one of the drivers Counterpoint names. Apple's "Pro and tell" media event in Los Angeles on October 28 is the first real check on whether the assumption holds.