[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"branding":3,"analytics":7,"article-more-ai-reasoning-doesnt-mean-better-trading-returns":10,"sections":34},{"siteName":4,"siteTagline":5,"publisherName":4,"contactEmail":6},"The Revision","Tech news, decoded.","editor@therevision.news",{"gaMeasurementId":8,"adsenseClientId":9},"G-ZW2MV82GYR","ca-pub-8533917693782264",{"article":11},{"id":12,"slug":13,"title":14,"dek":15,"body_md":16,"tags_json":17,"published_at":18,"created_at":19,"updated_at":20,"status":21,"review_note":22,"review_notes":23,"image_url":22,"persona_id":22,"persona_name":22,"section":24,"tags":25,"sources":29,"feedback":33,"feedback_at":22,"cost_usd":33,"total_tokens":33},8291,"more-ai-reasoning-doesnt-mean-better-trading-returns","More AI Reasoning Doesn't Mean Better Trading Returns","A year-long study of DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini models found heavier reasoning didn't reliably boost net trading returns after costs.","More reasoning from an AI model doesn't mean more money in your portfolio.\n\nA new study tested large language models from the DeepSeek, GPT, and Gemini families on a full year of U.S. equities, generating more than 800,000 asset predictions while holding the information available, prompts, output formats, and portfolio construction fixed. Researchers varied only how much reasoning effort each model used, across three input conditions: numerical data, identifiable news, and masked news. Across all three model families, more reasoning did not produce a reliable improvement in net portfolio returns after trading costs. For DeepSeek, where the team tested the full range from no reasoning to maximum reasoning, the effect was nonmonotonic - more thinking sometimes helped, sometimes hurt, with no clean pattern.\n\nThat undercuts a common assumption: that longer, more expensive reasoning automatically makes an AI's output more valuable, at least in a domain where the payoff is measured in dollars rather than benchmark scores. The researchers also found that repeated runs of the same model produced unstable trades even when overall performance scores looked similar, which is a bigger problem for anyone trying to deploy these systems in production.\n\nWorth remembering the next time a vendor pitches a reasoning mode as a premium upgrade: more compute isn't automatically a better bet, it's just a more expensive one.","[\"ai\",\"llms\",\"trading\",\"research\"]","2026-09-28T04:00:00.000Z","2026-09-28T22:07:36.859Z","2026-09-28T22:07:44.113Z","published",null,[],"ai",[24,26,27,28],"llms","trading","research",[30],{"name":31,"url":32},"arXiv cs.AI","https:\u002F\u002Farxiv.org\u002Fabs\u002F2609.30705",0,{"sections":35},[36,40,45,50,55,60,65,70,75,80,85,90,95,100],{"name":37,"slug":24,"count":38,"latest_published_at":39},"AI",4902,"2026-09-28T19:07:22.000Z",{"name":41,"slug":42,"count":43,"latest_published_at":44},"Security","security",767,"2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z",{"name":46,"slug":47,"count":48,"latest_published_at":49},"Policy","policy",405,"2026-09-28T17:00:51.000Z",{"name":51,"slug":52,"count":53,"latest_published_at":54},"Deals","deals",269,"2026-09-28T17:42:46.000Z",{"name":56,"slug":57,"count":58,"latest_published_at":59},"Hardware","hardware",191,"2026-09-28T15:45:00.000Z",{"name":61,"slug":62,"count":63,"latest_published_at":64},"Science","science",154,"2026-09-28T13:19:18.000Z",{"name":66,"slug":67,"count":68,"latest_published_at":69},"Consumer Tech","consumer-tech",139,"2026-09-28T17:09:47.000Z",{"name":71,"slug":72,"count":73,"latest_published_at":74},"Software","software",91,"2026-09-25T20:55:00.000Z",{"name":76,"slug":77,"count":78,"latest_published_at":79},"Dev Tools","dev-tools",87,"2026-09-28T16:11:42.000Z",{"name":81,"slug":82,"count":83,"latest_published_at":84},"Startups","startups",80,"2026-09-28T17:50:28.000Z",{"name":86,"slug":87,"count":88,"latest_published_at":89},"General","general",49,"2026-09-28T16:44:57.000Z",{"name":91,"slug":92,"count":93,"latest_published_at":94},"Gaming","gaming",48,"2026-09-25T18:35:21.000Z",{"name":96,"slug":97,"count":98,"latest_published_at":99},"Reviews","reviews",31,"2026-09-28T14:31:34.000Z",{"name":101,"slug":102,"count":103,"latest_published_at":104},"How-To","how-to",6,"2026-06-16T09:00:00.000Z"]