The average price of a PC is headed 17.3% higher this year, per IDC, and the memory crunch driving that is showing no sign of letting up.
IDC's forecast points to a prolonged memory shortage as the primary force behind the projected 17.3% average price increase for PCs in 2026. When component costs rise and supply stays tight, OEMs have two options: raise sticker prices or ship lower-spec configurations at the same price point. Neither is a good story for a market that has been searching for a demand catalyst for years. The result is a compounding problem: fewer affordable entry points and a harder case for upgrading.
The timing is particularly awkward for the AI PC push. Chip makers and PC manufacturers have spent the better part of two years arguing that on-device AI is the reason consumers should buy new hardware. A near-20% average price increase makes that argument significantly harder to land, especially when the AI features being marketed are still struggling to justify the premium on their own terms. Higher prices slow the refresh cycle the whole industry is counting on.
Memory shortages are cyclical. The last significant DRAM squeeze, in 2017 and 2018, eventually broke when new capacity came online. The question is whether "eventually" arrives before back-to-school season or after it.