Local data center moratoriums are slowing far less US construction than their count suggests, according to SemiAnalysis, which puts the likely delay at about 2.3 gigawatts (GW) of the roughly 21 GW sitting in moratorium areas.
The firm tracks more than 400 local restrictions across 17 states as of September, and the enacted ones include a few permanent zoning bans. It counts three projects as likely to be delayed. Its forecast for 2027 is 38 GW of US data center capacity, more than double 2026, and it said that forecast has barely moved in 12 months. Of that total, 22 GW is under vertical construction and 16 GW is mostly financed, with site work underway.
The 2.3 GW has two parts: 1.5 GW delayed under enacted local moratoriums, which cover about 20 GW, plus 0.8 GW from New York's pause. It excludes the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) pause, which Gov. Greg Abbott ordered and which Bracewell, a law firm, expects to last until the state grid operator finishes its review in mid-December.
The firm's explanation is mechanical. Moratoriums do not revoke existing approvals, short ones can expire before later projects need permits, and equipment lead times may already set the schedule. Michigan has 45 enacted moratoriums but effectively no exposed pipeline. In Brownsville, Texas, SpaceX's planned site is on land the city removed from its limits. One township in Pennsylvania did make a pause work, pushing local approval for NorthPoint into next year.
The finding fits a pattern: a local rule bites only if it reaches the parcel, is in force, overlaps the timeline and cannot be worked around. Blunt statewide action is different, which is why the firm singled out Texas, and why Abbott and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul using executive routes they can revoke matters. An Economist reporter quoted in the analysis put the larger risk at deterring newer projects and shifting where they land, not whether they get built. The firm also polled in August and found Americans view data centers more negatively than positively.
The next data point is the TCEQ's compliance report to Abbott's office, due October 19.