[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"branding":3,"analytics":7,"article-cruxbench-tests-whether-ai-models-ask-good-questions":10,"sections":34},{"siteName":4,"siteTagline":5,"publisherName":4,"contactEmail":6},"The Revision","Tech news, decoded.","editor@therevision.news",{"gaMeasurementId":8,"adsenseClientId":9},"G-ZW2MV82GYR","ca-pub-8533917693782264",{"article":11},{"id":12,"slug":13,"title":14,"dek":15,"body_md":16,"tags_json":17,"published_at":18,"created_at":19,"updated_at":20,"status":21,"review_note":22,"review_notes":23,"image_url":22,"persona_id":22,"persona_name":22,"section":24,"tags":25,"sources":29,"feedback":33,"feedback_at":22,"cost_usd":33,"total_tokens":33},8561,"cruxbench-tests-whether-ai-models-ask-good-questions","CruxBench Tests Whether AI Models Ask Good Questions","A new benchmark called CruxBench scores AI models not on their answers but on the quality of the questions they generate to forecast future events.","A new benchmark grades AI models on curiosity, not correctness.\n\nCruxBench, introduced in an arXiv paper published today, tests whether large language models can identify the right subquestions - the researchers call them \"cruxes\" - on the way to solving a hard forecasting problem. Rather than checking a model's final answer against a fixed label, it scores each proposed question by its Value of Information, or how much that question would actually shift beliefs about a real future event. The researchers ran eight models against 293 forecasting questions. VOI scores correlated strongly with independent measures of model capability (r=0.90), but even frontier models only narrowly beat a baseline that ignores question content entirely and guesses based on timing.\n\nMost AI benchmarks measure whether a model can answer a question someone else already framed for it. CruxBench flips that setup: it tests whether a model can figure out which question is worth asking, a skill closer to how research, due diligence, and strategic planning actually work in practice. That top models barely edge out a timing-only baseline suggests genuine information-seeking is not something scale has quietly solved along the way - a real capability gap, not a footnote.\n\nThe design also has a built-in defense against the usual complaint about AI benchmarks: contamination. Ground truth here does not exist until the future actually happens, so no model can have memorized the answer key.","[\"ai\",\"benchmarks\",\"llms\",\"forecasting\"]","2026-09-30T04:00:00.000Z","2026-09-30T11:18:57.737Z","2026-09-30T11:19:09.229Z","published",null,[],"ai",[24,26,27,28],"benchmarks","llms","forecasting",[30],{"name":31,"url":32},"arXiv cs.AI","https:\u002F\u002Farxiv.org\u002Fabs\u002F2609.35879",0,{"sections":35},[36,39,43,47,52,57,62,67,72,76,81,86,91,96],{"name":37,"slug":24,"count":38,"latest_published_at":18},"AI",5105,{"name":40,"slug":41,"count":42,"latest_published_at":18},"Security","security",785,{"name":44,"slug":45,"count":46,"latest_published_at":18},"Policy","policy",417,{"name":48,"slug":49,"count":50,"latest_published_at":51},"Deals","deals",284,"2026-09-29T21:00:00.000Z",{"name":53,"slug":54,"count":55,"latest_published_at":56},"Hardware","hardware",194,"2026-09-29T13:16:04.000Z",{"name":58,"slug":59,"count":60,"latest_published_at":61},"Science","science",154,"2026-09-28T13:19:18.000Z",{"name":63,"slug":64,"count":65,"latest_published_at":66},"Consumer Tech","consumer-tech",142,"2026-09-29T18:38:03.000Z",{"name":68,"slug":69,"count":70,"latest_published_at":71},"Software","software",91,"2026-09-25T20:55:00.000Z",{"name":73,"slug":74,"count":75,"latest_published_at":18},"Dev Tools","dev-tools",90,{"name":77,"slug":78,"count":79,"latest_published_at":80},"Startups","startups",83,"2026-09-29T21:51:36.000Z",{"name":82,"slug":83,"count":84,"latest_published_at":85},"General","general",49,"2026-09-28T16:44:57.000Z",{"name":87,"slug":88,"count":89,"latest_published_at":90},"Gaming","gaming",48,"2026-09-25T18:35:21.000Z",{"name":92,"slug":93,"count":94,"latest_published_at":95},"Reviews","reviews",31,"2026-09-28T14:31:34.000Z",{"name":97,"slug":98,"count":99,"latest_published_at":100},"How-To","how-to",6,"2026-06-16T09:00:00.000Z"]