A five-day sell-off has stripped more than $1 trillion from the value of 20 of the most valuable AI and semiconductor companies, by one financial news tally.
Nvidia fell about 8% over the period. AMD dropped 13% and Intel nearly 15%. Memory makers took the worst of it: Samsung Electronics fell nearly 20%, SK hynix 18%, and Micron more than 15%.
That ordering is the interesting part. The companies that sell AI chips fell less than the companies that make the memory inside them, which points to a supply story more than a story about people losing interest in AI.
Several pressures appear to be stacking up. A column in a South Korean business daily raised the prospect that the memory shortage flips into oversupply by 2029, and Acer's CEO said it is impossible for the shortage to last until 2030. Manufacturers are adding capacity, though TSMC's next-generation Arizona fab is fully booked before it has been built. China's CXMT is estimated to match Micron's DRAM output this year, and it claims a new chip architecture that raises memory density.
Financing is the other worry. The CEOs of Intel and Broadcom have said money could become a bigger obstacle for the AI industry than memory or electricity. With interest rates up, the cost of borrowing for data-center buildouts looks harder to square with the returns.
Memory has a long record of swinging from shortage to glut, so a forecast of oversupply, even one years out, can move prices today. Analyst Dan Ives, who still sees robust demand for AI computing, put the test plainly: "What would change our view is a demand signal, not [an increased interest] rate signal."
The sell-off is pricing in the cost of building AI. Whether it also prices in weaker demand is a separate question, and nothing in these numbers answers it.