Apple opened iPhone Duo pre-orders in more than 70 countries on October 16, even though it knew it would not have enough units, according to Mark Gurman. He called the decision a "major mistake."
In his Power On newsletter on October 18, Gurman wrote that Apple expected "severe supply constraints" because of manufacturing challenges. It went ahead anyway, "apparently prioritizing a desire to get the device on the market early in its fiscal first quarter over satisfying demand." He said that will disappoint the early adopters most eager to buy.
The launch also grew beyond the original plan. Gurman said Apple first intended to sell the iPhone Duo only in the U.S. and China, then expand to other countries later. It instead chose to start pre-orders everywhere at once.
The two choices work against each other. Apple's fiscal first quarter runs October through December, so an early start lets it book sales in the holiday period. But a shortage that is already known gets worse when every market can order on day one. A two-country launch would have pointed scarce units at two places. A 70-country launch sends them into a much larger queue, and more customers see long waits.
There is a small consolation. Apple's delivery estimates tend to be conservative, so some buyers may see their dates move up.
The trade-off Gurman describes is an old one in hardware: ship on the schedule you set for the quarter, or on the inventory you have. By his account, Apple chose the calendar. Whether that costs it anything beyond some irritated early adopters depends on how quickly the factories catch up.